piątek, 31 lipca 2015

Fwd: You'll want to own this when...


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From: Outsider Club <ww-eletter@angelnexus.com>
Date: Fri, Jul 31, 2015 at 8:06 PM
Subject: You'll want to own this when...
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You'll want to own this when...
By Jason Simpkins | Friday, July 31st, 2015

Opening a gold mine is a costly endeavor. Simply finding a deposit, exploring potential reserves, navigating governmental bureaucracy and environmental red tape, and building the necessary facilities can have a project bogged down before it even gets to the point of extraction.

But what if I told you there was a mine already built, permitted, and operational... That early indications suggested as much as 800,000 ounces of gold were present... And that the only thing left to do was to get to work?

That's exactly the position in which Pershing Gold Corp. finds itself. The company is literally sitting on a gold mine, poised to take the final leap into full-fledged production in a matter of months.

And if gold prices stabilize, it could be extremely profitable.

Here's the story...

History

Pershing operates the Relief Canyon mine in Northwest Nevada.

Located in Pershing County, along the western edge of the Humboldt Range, the Relief Canyon Mine is situated 110 miles northeast of Reno.

Miners there have been producing gold, silver, and mercury since the 1860s, with gold first discovered in 1979.

In 1986, Pegasus Gold Corp. bought a four-year option on the mining property, producing more than 100,000 ounces of gold from November 1986 to September 1990.

In 1995, Firstgold Corp. took the mine over from Pegasus. And from 1996 to 2008, the company drilled 182 holes and revamped the Adsorption-Desorption Recovery (ADR) plant originally built by Pegasus in the late 80s.

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However, Firstgold Corp. was financially backed by Chinese investors. And in 2009, the Committee on Foreign Investment ruled that the mine was too close to Fallon's Naval Air Station to allow a foreign presence.

Firstgold wasn't able to come up with a solid plan to reorganize its operations, and it was subsequently forced into bankruptcy court. Thus, control of Relief Canyon mine fell to the company's creditors, who sold it to Pershing in 2011. (This is key because Pershing basically inherited Firstgold's newly-built ADR plant.)

Since then, Pershing has been hard at work, snapping up acreage in the surrounding area, updating infrastructure, and pursuing the necessary permits to revive Relief Canyon.

From 2012 to 2015, Pershing expanded the project's size from 1,100 acres to 25,000 acres.

Relief Canyon Timeline

It's also found a substantial amount of gold...

Findings

As the area's history supports, the Relief Canyon Mine holds much potential. After all, the mine had previously yielded impressive results despite the area being largely unexplored.

But even Pershing has been pleasantly surprised by its findings.

The company's most recent drilling results showed a measured and indicated resource of 739,000 ounces of gold. That's 34% higher than the 552,000 ounces of measured and indicated resource estimated in March 2014.

And on top of that, the 2015 results — which included 141 core holes and approximately 80,000 feet of drilling — showed an inferred resource of another 70,000 ounces.

Pershing Gold  Estimates

Much of that gold has been of a quality grade, as well.

Among the results of this drilling program are multiple core-holes with high-grade intercepts. Holes RC15-264, RC15-265A, and RC15-279 included gold intercepts of 76.8 grams per ton (gpt), 87.9 gpt, and 123.9 gpt, respectively.

These, and many other intercepts encountered in the recent drilling program, grade significantly higher than Relief Canyon's historic average of approximately 1 gpt. And since it's acquired so much of the surrounding property, there are ample targets for new exploration.

Pershing Intercepts

High-grade intercepts are not definitive proof of prevalent reserves, but they're a crucial early indicator of success.

Equally important, with so much infrastructure left over from previous mining activity, production and development costs have been largely contained.

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Operations

The Relief Canyon Mine property includes three open-pit mines (North Pit, South Pit, Light Bulb), as well as a state-of-the-art, fully permitted and constructed heap leach processing facility. This processing facility was designed and built specifically for the ore at Relief Canyon.

If you're not familiar, heap leaching means ore is crushed into fine particles, "heaped" into large piles, and doused with cyanide. The cyanide trickles through the ore, bonding with any gold along the way. The resulting gold-cyanide solution is then collected, and the gold separated back out.

Again, Pershing's heap-leach processing facility is already built and fully permitted. It has the capacity to process gold-bearing solutions from the leaching of 8 million tons of ore per year. The leach pad can hold 21 million tons and can be readily expanded. The plant is ideally situated to process ore from future discoveries of satellite deposits.

Relief Canyon Mine

As you can see in the photo above, everything is nicely contained and perfectly accessible.

So to recap...

  • Pershing took over an already productive mine and processing facility on a historically proven plot of land.
  • The company then added to its acreage, increasing the potential to find more productive deposits.
  • The early results have been extremely positive in terms of both quality and quantity. And there exists the possibility of expanding the mine as needed.
  • The necessary infrastructure was either already present, added, or upgraded, and it's fully permitted and ready to go operational.

The only thing left to do is start production. That, the company says, will likely happen in mid-2016, pending a review of the project's economic viability later this year.

According to CEO Steve Alfers, that economic report will show production costs of between $600 and $800 per ounce. Alfers also says production will average 84,000 ounces per year over the mine's lifespan.

Valuation

Pershing Gold has a recent stock price of $5.00 per share. That's in the lower end of its 52-week range of $3.60 to $7.45.

At that valuation, the company's market cap is roughly $120 million. That's slightly below the company's net asset value, which we can estimate to be somewhere between $170 million and $200 million based on current gold prices.

Pershing has no debt and roughly $13 million of cash on hand, having recently completed an $11.5 million raise.

The final cost of opening the mine and going into production is extremely low. We won't know the specifics until the economic study is completed, but it's believed to be about $25 million (an estimated $13 million CAPEX and $12 million sustaining costs).

Pershing Overview

Basically, the company needs to raise another $15 million to move forward — if that is what it intends to do.

That is, there is a chance that the mine's opening could be delayed.

Gold prices have been trending steadily downward over the past few years, and it's unclear when, or to what degree, they might rebound.

To conduct its economic study, Pershing originally estimated gold prices at $1,200 to $1,250 per ounce. However, gold prices recently fell to about $1,080 per ounce, so the company will have to adjust its estimate.

Even at current price levels, the mine will still be profitable. But if gold prices continue to fall, it might not be prudent to start production. The company might be better off burning through some of its cash (and possibly raising more) as it waits for prices to rebound.

Another uncertainty is the potential of a buyout or merger. If the project stalls, it could get picked up by a larger mining company looking to add a shovel-ready project to its asset sheet. The fact that Pershing has no debt makes it particularly attractive in that capacity.

Alfers said his company had considered potential mergers in the past, but there are no such plans now.

For the time being, Pershing's strategy is to unlock shareholder value by advancing the Relief Canyon Mine to commercial production, expanding the mine through development drilling, and exploring its 25,000 acres of land for more gold deposits.

It's all there for the taking. The company just needs a bit more cooperation from gold prices.

As far as the management team is concerned, CEO Alfers has 30 years of experience in the mining industry, formerly serving as the CEO of New West Gold and the chief of U.S. operations for mining royalty company Franco Nevada.

He's joined by Chief Operating Officer Timothy Janke, who worked as general manager at the Marigold, Florida Canyon, Ruby Hill, and Pinson mines in Nevada.

Senior Vice President Debra Struhsacker also has a proven track record of successfully permitting mineral exploration and mining projects. She played key roles in the fast-track permitting of Franco-Nevada's Ken Snyder Mine (now Newmont's Midas Mine), and in exploring and developing the Long Canyon Project (also now Newmont's), both in Elko County, Nevada.

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Conclusion

Pershing is an early-stage miner with huge benefits.

One is that it's avoided many of the costs associated with starting up from scratch. ADP plants and processing facilities like those present at Relief Canyon can cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Pershing acquired them, unused, in a bankruptcy sale.

Another is that it's operating in a historically-proven region. Pegasus had some early success in the 1980s, and technology has come a long way since then — both in terms of finding and extracting gold deposits. And much of the area has yet to be fully explored.

Early indications already suggest that a significant amount of gold is present and that it's of a higher quality than previously thought.

The stock could easily move higher on the release of its financial estimate later this year. However, the real momentum events would be starting production, or even the announcement of a concrete start date.

Nothing is guaranteed. The price of gold remains the company's most formidable adversary.

But if the price of gold stabilizes or moves higher, Pershing will stand to benefit.

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Get paid,

Jason Simpkins Signature

Jason Simpkins

follow basic@OCSimpkins on Twitter

Jason Simpkins is a seven-year veteran of the financial publishing industry, where he's served as a reporter, analyst, investment strategist and prognosticator. He's written more than 1,000 articles pertaining to personal finance and macroeconomics. Simpkins also served as the chief investment analyst for a trading service that focused exclusively on high-flying energy stocks. For more on Jason, check out his editor's page. 

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